Which model for the next data point?

The next observation, scored alone. Every model paired against a reference on the same series.

Series

Frequency

Reference

held-out series only

Series types

model	series	win / loss*	ΔLL	CRPS	cov₉₀	licence

laplace++ is trained on one half of each panel (split by series family) and scored only on the other half, so its row covers fewer series; tick held-out series only to put every model on that same half.

* By log score: a per-series Diebold–Mariano test on the log predictive density, 64 one-step points per series. Click a column to sort.

foundation model classical, refit every step laplace and laplace++ open commercial use allowed restricted free below a revenue threshold non-commercial research and evaluation only

TimeH2O: h2oai/timeh2o-v1 at Hugging Face revision c556990 (weights unchanged since 60b68fa, 2026-10-22), evaluated 2026-11-03 to 2026-11-04 under its non-commercial licence. Method: methodology.

Built 2026-11-09 from skaters commit 6c5da15 (2026-11-06).